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JANUARY 13,  2016

SHORT TAKES ON THE DRIFTING WRECKAGE – AT 11:52 P.M. ET: 

MY HEART BREAKS – From The Hill:   Al Jazeera America is shutting its doors less than three years after making a massive investment in the U.S. media market, an end for the cable news channel beset with meager ratings and internal strife.  Chief executive Al Anstey told employees in a companywide meeting Wednesday that the “decision by Al Jazeera America’s board is driven by the fact that our business model is simply not sustainable in light of the economic challenges in the U.S. media marketplace,” according to The New York Times.   How will Obama get his news?

COINCIDENCE? – From The New York Times:   Concerned about illicit money flowing into luxury real estate, the Treasury Department said Wednesday that it would begin identifying and tracking secret buyers of high-end properties.  The initiative will start in two of the nation’s major destinations for global wealth: Manhattan and Miami-Dade County. It will shine a light on the darkest corner of the real estate market: all-cash purchases made by shell companies that often shield purchasers’ identities.  Hmm.  Who's the king of real estate in New York?  Isn't his name Trump?  Just a coincidence, I'm sure.  Nothing to see, nothing to see.

DARKNESS ON CAMPUS – From the College Fix:   At Pennsylvania State University, no hurt feeling is too small, no slight too inconsequential, no unintentionally biased statement too unimportant.  Administrators want to know it all.  The public university is in the midst of a massive campaign that encourages students not only to watch what they say, lest they offend someone, but also to report any and all biased statements to campus officials.  Next they'll be encouraged to turn in their parents.  One of the great lies is that intellectuals love freedom.  The record is actually quite poor, as we are seeing today.

January 13, 2016       Permalink

OUR NEW, WARM, IRANIAN FRIENDS – Following the release of our sailors this morning, Iran issued another blunt threat to the United States.  From FNA: 

TEHRAN (FNA) - Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (IRGC) Navy Commander Rear Admiral Ali Fadavi blamed the US navy for its excited and unprofessional moves after Iran arrested 10 US marines for trespassing on its territorial waters, warning that his forces' coast-to-sea missiles were awaiting orders to hit the American aircraft carrier deployed in the region.

The IRGC seized two US Navy boats on Tuesday and detained them on Iran's Farsi Island in the Persian Gulf. Nine men and one woman arrived in Iran's territorial waters in the Persian Gulf illegally when they were captured by the IRGC Navy.

Following the capture, two US and French aircraft carriers as well as their accompanying fleets and military choppers started maneuvering near Iranian waters.

"The USS Truman Aircraft carrier showed unprofessional moves for 40 minutes after the detention of the trespassers, while we were highly prepared with our coast-to-sea missiles, missile-launching speedboats and our numerous capabilities" and were ready to strike them in case they made a hostile move, Rear Admiral Ali Fadavi said after Iran released the detained US marines.

COMMENT:  How nice.  How friendly.  This morning our secretary of state, Grand Admiral John Kerry, actually thanked the Iranians for releasing our ten sailors, who should never have been captured in the first place.  Kerry attributed their release to the new contacts with Iran developed during the nuclear-agreement talks. 

Apparently, Rear Admiral Ali Fadavi never got the memo. 

The Iranians must be laughing their heads off.  And for good reason.

January 13, 2016       Permalink

THE NIKKI FACTOR – AT 10:47 A.M. ET:   It's not necessary to agree with South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley to realize that she made an impression last night, giving the GOP response to Obama's Mess of the Union address.   She knew that by seeming to take on Donald Trump, she'd make news and be invited back to interview shows.  And so it has been.  From Breitbart: 

Wednesday on NBC’s “Today,” Gov. Nikki Haley (R-SC) elaborated on her Republican response to last night’s State of the Union address.

Haley was asked by show co-host Matt Lauer if she was specifically referring to GOP presidential front-runner Donald Trump when talking about her party’s “angriest voices,” to which she acknowledged she was indeed talking about Trump.

“He was one of them, yes — he was one,” Haley said. “There’s other people in the media, there’s people in my state. I think we’re seeing it across the country. But yes, Mr. Trump has definitely contributed to what I think is just irresponsible talk.”

When asked if she would consider being on the Republican presidential ticket, Haley thanked House Speaker Rep. Paul Ryan (R-WI)56% and Senate Majority Leader Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-KY)46%
for the opportunity, but would not commit to the possibility.

“I know that people in the media don’t believe that, but I was given an opportunity to say what I think, and I appreciate that from Speaker Ryan and Senator McConnell,” Haley replied.

“I think that that’s a big decision,” she added. “It’s a family decision. It’s a state decision. It’s something I’d have to think about. But absolutely would sit down with anyone that wanted to talk.”

COMMENT:  Nikki Haley has often been a factor when considering vice-presidential candidates.  She's now a more important and more visible factor.  Her timing couldn't be better.  The big primary after Iowa and New Hampshire will be held in her own state of South Carolina, on February 20th.  She'll be seen and heard. 

Will she endorse one candidate and roll the dice?  Maybe.  If she helps that candidate win the nomination, her name will be golden.

March 1st is Super Tuesday, when 14 states and one territory (American Samoa) hold their primary elections or caucuses.  If Haley is seen as a rising star, she'll be in demand as a speaker.  A female, a minority, a Southerner.  Someone who took on Trump. 

This is all speculative, and Haley may burn out in three days.   But she's a sitting governor with a high approval rating, and I would not underestimate her.

January 13, 2016       Permalink

IRAN IN CHARGE – AT 9:33 A.M. ET:  Iran has now released the ten American sailors it seized yesterday, apparently after one of the Americans' two boats encountered mechanical problems.   The administration will hail the release as a sign of new cooperation with Iran.  But grown-ups see it differently.  From ace defense reporters Josh Rogin and Eli Lake, at Bloomberg, written before the release: 

Iran's seizure of two U.S. naval ships and President Barack Obama's response show that the country the president hoped would secure his foreign policy legacy now has the ability to hold it hostage.

Obama didn’t mention the incident in the Persian Gulf during his State of the Union speech because, according to administration officials, the U.S. does not consider the boarding of the ships and the seizure of 10 U.S. sailors to be a "hostile act." Instead, the president praised the diplomatic agreement on Iran's nukes.

Not a hostile act?  And I guess those planes over Pearl Harbor in 1941 were flown by lost tourists.

“As we speak, Iran has rolled back its nuclear program, shipped out its uranium stockpile, and the world has avoided another war,” he said.

Even if Iran quickly releases the 10 U.S. military personnel it took custody of, as senior Obama administration officials assured reporters Tuesday evening, the incident is a significant escalation in the Persian Gulf. It shows that despite a nuclear agreement with the West, Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps is willing to board U.S. vessels, take American soldiers into custody, and, according to CNN citing U.S. officials, confiscate the crew's communications and GPS equipment.

Officials pointed to Secretary of State John Kerry’s call to Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif as evidence of an improved bilateral relationship. But there were several signs the administration and the Iranian government were not working well together. As the Iranian state press reported the sailors had been “arrested” for “snooping,” a senior Obama administration official gave reporters conflicting information, saying the boats had malfunctioned and the sailors would be released “promptly.” It took several hours before the captured sailors were allowed to make contact with their superiors.

The incident is just latest in a series of Iranian provocations since agreeing to the nuclear deal in July. In late December, Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps vessels fired unguided missiles near the USS Truman; the U.S. did not retaliate. Also last month, Kerry wrote to the Iranian government to assure it the U.S. government would waive new visa restrictions passed by Congress, after Tehran objected. The U.S. indefinitely delayed imposing sanctions on Iran in response to its tests of ballistic missiles in violation of United Nations sanctions.

“This administration is going to remain hostage from now until they leave office to the games the Iranians play and to Iranian behavior that falls outside the four corners of the agreement,” said Aaron David Miller, a former Middle East negotiator now at the Wilson Center.

COMMENT:  Iran knows it can play Obama like a violin because our president will do nothing to disrupt the nuclear agreement.  We're now into the "legacy" game, not the leadership game.

But don't despair.  Just wait for the end-of-term media wrapups of Obama's presidency, when we'll be told that he's ready for Mount Rushmore.  I can just hear those words from Chris Matthews. 

January 13, 2016       Permalink

IS HILLARY COLLAPSING? – AT 9:12 A.M. ET:  Caution:  It is tempting to ask questions like that, but be aware that, despite his poll progress thus far, Bernie Sanders faces a daunting task after the focus passes from Iowa and New Hampshire and switches to the South, where large numbers of African-American voters are ready to support Hillary.  From CBS: 

Bernie Sanders now leads Hillary Clinton by 14 points in New Hampshire, according to the latest Monmouth University Poll of likely New Hampshire voters who are likely to vote in the first-in-the-nation primary in February.

Fifty-three percent of these voters choose Sanders, compared to 39 percent for Clinton. And the new poll shows that Clinton has also lost her edge over Sanders among registered Democrats, women and older voters. Sanders has now surpassed her with these voters, while holding onto his lead among registered independents, men and younger voters.

Under New Hampshire's modified primary system, undeclared voters may vote in either the Republican or Democratic primary, although voters who are members of one of the parties cannot vote in the other party's primary. Clinton (42 percent) is now losing Democrats to Sanders (50 percent), compared to two months ago, when she led Sanders 57 percent - 35 percent.

COMMENT:  Let's give it some time before the political obituary is written.  Hillary's biggest problem, and one that can explode at any moment, is the FBI investigation hanging over her.  However, if her polls continue to weaken, the Dems might start to panic, and look toward Joe Biden to save them.  Obama will smile.

January 13,  2016     Permalink

JANUARY 12,  2016

SHORT TAKES ON THE DRIFTING WRECKAGE – AT 11:56 P.M. ET: 

THE SPEECH – The president's final State of the Union was fairly routine.  No surprises.  No memorable phrases.  A fitting speech for a president who speaks well, but not brilliantly.  From Fox:  President Obama, with an eye on cementing his legacy and countering the narrative on the Republican campaign trail, used his final State of the Union address Tuesday night to defend his economic record – and, in stark language, downplay the threat from the Islamic State.  “Over-the-top claims that this is World War III just play into their hands,” the president said, arguing that ISIS fighters “do not threaten our national existence.”  The remarks on ISIS are sure to rile Republican critics who say the president’s strategy for confronting the group is inadequate – particularly just hours after ISIS was blamed for another deadly attack, this time in Istanbul.  Texas Sen. Ted Cruz, one of the leading candidates for the GOP presidential nomination, tweeted afterward that the address was “less a State of the Union and more a state of denial.”  Cruz is right.  No one is seriously saying that we're in World War III with ISIS.  But Americans, acutely aware of the great lessons of the 20th century, are saying that we'd better nip this threat early or we'll surely face a larger war, and ISIS will have more powerful weapons, including weapons of mass destruction.  Why is that so hard for Obama to grasp?

THE OTHER SPEECH – The much more interesting speech was the Republican response to the president, given by Governor Nikki Haley of  South Carolina.  These responses to State of the Union speeches are hard, and hazardous.  The president has the glamour, the prestige, the House chamber, the fawning applause.  The responder has one TV camera and a chilly room, or maybe the family garage.  Haley did reasonably well.  Her TV makeup was inadequate, and the lighting harsh.  Her eyes sometimes looked welded open.  But she has a calming style and spoke sensibly, although you might not agree with her swipe at Donald Trump: 

From RedState:    Suffice it to say that Haley nailed the speech.  Which is interesting, because the speech was only incidentally about Barack Obama's State of the Union. Well, maybe a bit more than 'incidentally;' but this speech was primarily to let Donald Trump know that after Iowa and New Hampshire comes South Carolina. And that Nikki Haley has no intention whatsoever to make life easy for Donald Trump while he's down there..."Today, we live in a time of threats like few others in recent memory. During anxious times, it can be tempting to follow the siren call of the angriest voices. We must resist that temptation."
"In many parts of society today, whether in popular culture, academia, the media, or politics, there’s a tendency to falsely equate noise with results."  If Trump gets the nomination, Nikki won't be his V.P. choice.  But if someone else gets it, she'd be fine, and strong. 

SAILORS STILL HELD – From CNN:  Washington (CNN) Despite 10 American sailors being in Iranian custody, President Barack Obama stuck to his State of the Union script Tuesday night and made no mention of the incident, instead touting his nuclear deal with Tehran.  The sailor, in small boats, were captured just hours before the speech in waters near Iran.  The fact that Iran felt comfortable in holding them shows that it has no fear of Barack Obama.  The fact that Obama didn't mention them shows that Obama has no respect for his own sailors.

January 12, 2016       Permalink

QUOTE OF THE DAY – BRILLIANT – AT 9:42 A.M. ET:  The president will have an empty chair in the gallery tonight as he delivers his final State of the Union.  From Andrew Malcolm at IBD: 

You might think the empty seat sympathetically represents the recent victims of domestic terror, like the 14 innocents who perished in an ISIS-inspired attack last month in San Bernardino. Or maybe it's for the nation's dedicated first responders and police officers, like the one wounded the other day by an ISIS-inspired Muslim radical in Philadelphia.

Or perhaps the empty chair represents the 23 U.S. service members who've died fighting in Afghanistan in the bloody months since Obama proclaimed he had ended all combat there.
Or the 1,749 military deaths -- 74% of the total -- that have occurred in Afghanistan during Obama's half of that war.

But you'd be wrong to think any of that.

Obama has decided that tonight's empty seat represents the victims of American gun violence, which just happens to coincide with the Democrat's controversial series of "commonsense" executive gun-control actions.

Not against terrorist gun violence, you understand, because that would require Obama to explain where those murderous folks came from after proclaiming he had sent al-Qaida on the run and decimated the ranks of terrorist leaders.

And not by citing Chicago, the country's murder capital and Obama's adopted hometown, where 470 people fell to bullets in the 365 days of 2015. Because that would require Obama to call out Mayor Rahm Emanuel, his machine pol pal and ex-chief of staff.

COMMENT:   Superbly stated.  The real story tonight will be Obama's alternative universe, and the way he's been allowed to live in it by a compliant press. 

January 12, 2016       Permalink

AND A SHARP WARNING FROM FRANCE – AT 9:08 A.M. ET:   French experts are warning of horrendous terror attacks they believe are planned for this year.   From France 24: 

French anti-terrorism experts believe the two major attacks in Paris in 2015 were a “dress rehearsal” for more professional and better-organised terror attacks on a much larger scale in 2016.

The January 2015 attacks on satirical magazine Charlie Hebdo – which had angered many by publishing cartoons of the Prophet Mohammed in 2006 – was the first in three days of attacks that claimed a total of 17 lives.

On November 13, gunmen in Paris killed 130 people in a series of coordinated attacks, the deadliest assault on French soil since World War II.

As bad as the carnage was, many experts agree that with the number of attacks on a definite upward swing, the threat will get much worse in the coming year.

"Unfortunately, I think 2015 was nothing," an unnamed French senior counter-terrorism official told AFP last week. “We are moving towards a European 9/11: simultaneous attacks on the same day in several countries, several places. A very coordinated thing. We know the terrorists are working on this."

COMMENT:  We can't say we weren't warned.  There seems now to be a new attack of some kind every week.  And we have in the White House a president whose main concern is his legacy on the political left. 

If you see something, say something.  And vote in November.

January 12, 2016       Permalink

ANOTHER ONE, THIS TIME IN TURKEY – AT 8:52 A.M. ET:  A terror attack in Istanbul.  From Fox: 

A 28-year-old Syrian national blew himself up in a popular tourist district of Istanbul Tuesday, killing at least 10 people and injuring at least 15 more, Turkish government officials said.

Turkey's Dogan news agency reported that at least six Germans, one Norwegian and one Peruvian were among the wounded, and Seoul's Foreign Ministry told reporters via text message that one South Korean had a finger injury. The Norwegian Foreign Ministry told Norway's news agency NTB that the Norwegian tourist was slightly hurt and was being treated in a local hospital.

Authorities in Germany and Denmark warned citizens visiting Turkey to avoid crowds outside tourist attractions in Istanbul. German officials said on a government website that further violent clashes and "terrorist attacks" are expected across Turkey. Germany also urged travelers to stay away from demonstrations and gatherings, particularly in large cities.

The explosion, which could be heard from several neighborhoods, was at a park that is home to a landmark obelisk, some 25 yards from the historic Blue Mosque.

Sultanahmet is Istanbul's main sightseeing area and includes the Topkapi Palace and the Haghia Sophia museum.

COMMENT:  Obama gives his not-anticipated State of the Union message tonight.  Let's see if he mentions this, or whether he regards it as a diversion from his legacy.

January 12,  2016     Permalink